Apple Watch Ultra 2 became official last month, one year after its predecessor. Therefore, you might expect the Apple Watch Ultra 3 to be announced in September 2024 along with the iPhone 16 generation.

This would seem to be a logical assumption, but it may not be accurate. Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said today that the company hasn’t started working on the next Apple Watch Ultra yet.

Due to the long development cycle, it is “unusual”. The Ultra 2 was already under development at this time last year, we assume. Unless Apple starts developing the Ultra 3 by December, it’s “almost confirmed” that we won’t see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024, according to Kuo.

Possibly, Apple needs more time to develop “innovative health management features”, ensure “the manufacturability of new features”, and address production issues relating to Micro LEDs.

Compared to 2023, Ultra series shipments are expected to decline by around 20-30% next year, and Apple Watch shipments will decline by about 10% next year, down to 35 million units.

Even though it comes from a reliable source, this is mostly speculation. If Apple wants to launch the next Ultra on time, it still has about a month to start developing it, so don’t completely rule it out.